The current state and the future projections of the Gulf of Bothnia are important aspects when making plans for the sustainable development and use of the sea area. Also the possible changes in extreme events, such as high of low sea level or severe ice winters, need to be taken into account in planning of the future off-shore and coastal infrastructure.

Simulations of the current state and future oceanographic conditions of the Gulf of Bothnia will be performed to ensure long-term perspective for planning of the sustainable development of the Gulf of Bothnia. We will us three-dimensional ocean-ice-biogeochemistry model NEMO-LIM3-SCOBI and wave model WAM to provide simulations of e.g. sea level, currents, temperature, salinty, ice, waves, nutrients and chlorophyll-a. Both model setups will have about 1 nmi horizontal resolution in the Gulf of Bothnia.

We will use the climate scenarios to study, how climate change affects the frequency and severity of extreme events in the marine environment. The probabilities of certain extreme events, such as mild/severe ice winters, sea levels, salinity, sea surface temperature, anoxia and algal blooms will bee estimated.

The climate scenarios will be made available in the Marine Spatial Planning toolbox. We will study how the changes in hydrographic and sea ice conditions affect the optimal location andgrowth efficiency of fish farming. The scenarios of sea-ice conditions and waves will also be used e.g. for long term planning of the ice breaking needs and maintenance of fairways. Also new guidelines for the ice load design requirements offshore constructions such as wind mill parks will be provided. And suitability of seafloor areas for construction (wind mills and aquaculture) will be studied in future climate.

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